miércoles, noviembre 08, 2006

Estocastica - Interesante manera de operar los gaps

http://estocastica.blogspot.com/search/label/day%20trading

El pibe opera con los gaps y charts de 30 minutos. Muy interesante el metodo.

Merval Argentina-Analisis resolucion triangulo anterior


* El triangulo anterior tuvo una duracion de 101 dias para resolver su destino.

* Tuvo una correccion de la tendencia a la baja del 38.2% fibonacci

* La extension desde el punto de la correccion tuvo una extension exacta del 150%



Actual :

* El triangulo actual tuvo una duracion de 83 dias para resolver el destino al alza

Ahora queda nada mas establecer un nivel de correccion. Si tomamos la pauta anterior habria que vigilar soportes en torno del 38.2% y la media movil de 13 dias : 1315-1302

martes, noviembre 07, 2006

Phi - El orden y el caos


Joey Ramone bolsero!!!!!!! La Gorda se muereeeee!!!!!


Cosas increibles nos deparan el destino a veces.....Joey Ramone bolsero!!!!!????...cosa de no creer!!!!!!!.....y pensar que la Gorda no cree en el destino....cada cual es dueño de su propio destino.......AGUANTE LOS RAMONES CARAJOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!



Algo parecido le debio ocurrir a Joey Ramone, el cantante del grupo punk Los Ramones. En 1998 Maria empezó a recibir e-mails de una persona que se hacía llamar Joey Ramone, haciendole inidicaciones de sus comentarios sobre el mercado, "...estas hablando muy bien de Intel, pero AMD esta ganando terreno, llamame y hablamos." Maria pensaba que el nombre era un seudonimo...pero una vez decidió responder un e-mail....y sorpresa, realmente era Joey Ramone, que además de la música tenia gran interés y conocimientos de bolsa, y establecieron una buena amistad....Hasta el punto de que en el último disco de Los Ramones (2001) hay una canción dedicada a Maria.... esta es la letra. Los amigos de Joey luego le confesaropn a Maria que éste en relidad esta coladito por elle...Ya no me soprendo por nada...Estrella de Punk (entendido en bolsa) y enamorado de la presentadora "pija" de un programa de finanzas...[*]



Maria Bartiromo

Joey Ramone

What's happening on Wall St.

What's happening at the Stock Exchange

I want to know

What's happening on Squawk Box

What's happening with my stocks

I want to know

I watch you on the TV every single day

Those eyes make everything okay

I watch her every day

I watch her every night

She's really outta sight

Maria Bartiromo

Maria Bartiromo

Maria Bartiromo

What's happening with Yahoo!

What's happening with AOL

I want to know

What's happening with Intel

What's happening with Amazon

I want to knowI watch you on TV every single day

Those eyes make eveything OKI watch her every day

I watch her every night

She's really outta sight

Maria Bartiromo (5x)

What's happening on Wall St.

What's happening at the Stock Exchange

I want to know

What's happening on Squawk Box

What's happening with my stocks

I want to know

I watch her at the big board every single day

While she's reporting you best stay out of her way

I watch her every day

I watch her every night

She's really outta sight




“El pánico causa que vendas en el bajón, y la codicia causa que compres cerca a la cima”. -Stan Weinstein
"Nunca te harás mas pobre recolectando pequeñas ganancias como tampoco nunca te harás mas rico ganando 4 puntos en un mercado de tendencia alcista."Jesse Livermore

viernes, noviembre 03, 2006

Articulos Trading Options

http://www.nickkatiforis.com/artlist.htm

http://www.trading-plan.com/options_volatility.html

Options and Volatilityby Nick Katiforis
Volatility is probably the most important principle of option trading, and the one least looked at and understood by the general public when trading options. Learning the correct use of this one principle alone can make a significant difference to your bottom line.
You would probably guess that a “volatile” market is one that is characterised by extreme price movements over time. However, you need to know exactly how much the price has moved, and over what period of time, for this information to be of any use in your trading. This statistical measure is known as historical volatility (also known as statistical volatility).
Historical Volatility helps you determine the possible magnitude of future moves of the underlying commodity. This information will influence the choice of trading strategy you will use.
Professional option traders generally do not concern themselves with the mathematical computations that go into the formula for computing historical volatility. Neither should you. The important thing is to use the information to help give you an edge when trading options.
Using Historical Volatility - An illustrated example
Price of underlying commodity = 100
Historical Volatility = 10%
Figure 1
Historical volatility is expressed as an annualised figure. The 10% figure referred to in Figure 1 means that there is a 68% chance (1 standard deviation) that the price of the underlying commodity (currently at 100) will, within one year, trade between 90 and 110 (10% either side of 100).
Another example may help:
Gold is trading at $300 per ounce.
Historical volatility is 20%.
Figure 2
The volatility of 20% referred to in figure 2, means that Gold will have a high probability (68%) of trading between $240 and $360 (20% either side of $300) over a 1-year period.
If you thought the price of gold was going up and you wanted to buy a gold call option, which option exercise price would you pick? Knowing the historical volatility of gold could help you decide.
By looking at the above distribution of prices it shows that prices above $360 and below $240 have a much lower probability of being reached. This means a call option with an exercise price higher than $360 will have a much smaller probability of becoming profitable.
This information can help you determine which exercise price is most appropriate to choose for the particular strategy you have in mind. Of course these figures should only be used as a guide only, as severely trending markets can carry prices to extreme levels in the commodity markets from time to time.
From the above examples it may become apparent that the higher the historical volatility figure, the greater the price range of movement a commodity can be expected to make. Conversely, the lower the volatility, the smaller the trading range is likely to be for the underlying commodity.
But Wait, There’s More!
Whereas historical volatility is a measure of volatility that looks back in time to show how volatile the market has been, there is another measure of volatility that looks forward in time to gauge where historical volatility will be in the future. This measure of volatility is known as implied volatility. This is even more important to an options trader than historical volatility.
Implied Volatility
Apart from changes in the price of the actual underlying commodity or security, the price of an option is most affected by changes in implied volatility. It measures what option traders expect the historical volatility will be in the future. The actual option price will determine implied volatility. The volatility is implicit in the price of the option.
Implied volatility is an indicator of the current sentiment of the market. This sentiment will be reflected in the price of the options.
The Property Market – An Analogy
In the property market, the best buying opportunities usually present themselves when sentiment in the property market is flat and the expectation is that property prices will remain stagnant or even go lower. At these times property prices are said to be ‘cheap’.
By buying when property prices are ‘cheap’ and waiting for the time when the sentiment of the market is running ‘hot’, you can then sell your property when prices are ‘expensive’ and turn a handsome profit.
This same principle can be applied to options, using implied volatility as an indicator of market sentiment. Buy when implied volatility is low (flat sentiment) and sell when implied volatility is high (extreme bullish or bearish sentiment).
If sentiment in the crude oil market becomes bullish, the prices of crude oil call options will rise even before the actual price of crude oil does.
High-implied volatility means that sentiment is extremely bullish or bearish and that option traders believe there is a greater likelihood of higher or lower prices being reached in the future.
Therefore:
Option buyers will be prepared to pay more for the option as they think there is a greater chance of the market making a large move in their favour.
Option writers (sellers) will incur a potentially greater risk if the expected price range increases and will therefore demand a higher premium for writing options.
These circumstances lead to option prices becoming more expensive when volatility is high, and less expensive when volatility is lower.
Options that have high implied volatility compared to their past are called ‘expensive’. Options that have low implied volatility compared to their past are said to be ‘cheap’.
Your job as an options trader is to take advantage of the times when sentiment swings to extremes by instituting selling strategies when options are ‘expensive’ and buying strategies when options are ‘cheap’. The sentiment of the market will over time usually return to a ‘normal’ level somewhere in between. By doing this you gain a ‘trading edge’.
Strategy
Look at instituting option buying strategies when implied volatility is at the low end of its historical range.
Look at instituting option writing (selling) strategies when implied volatility is at the high end of its historical range.
The first thing a professional options trader will do before initiating any trade is to check his volatility charts, to establish if volatility is relatively high or low compared to where it has been over the last few years, and over the last few months. This is to gauge whether buying or writing strategies are most appropriate.
Figure 3
Illustrated in Figure 3 is a price and volatility chart of gold. Option buying strategies would have been appropriate to institute when volatility was low, before the breakout in September. If the underlying market does make a sharp move in your favour:
1. The value of the option increases as the price of the underlying commodity increases (eg if gold goes up, call options will generally increase in value).
2. Volatility may rise significantly, driving the price of options higher (remember, higher volatility = higher option prices).
As an added bonus, if the market fails to make a big move, the potential loss should be lower as you would have paid less for the option you bought due to the low implied volatility.
Trading Tip
Large, explosive moves are often preceded by periods of low volatility. It is therefore a good time to initiate option buying strategies when volatility is at the low end of its historic range. In this situation buy options with plenty of time left to expiry because you never know just when volatility will break out. Give yourself time for the trade to work in your favour.
In September 1999 (see figure 3) both the price and volatility of gold exploded upwards. With volatility high, option-writing strategies were more appropriate to take advantage of the spike up in the price of gold options.
There are two reasons for this:
1. Firstly, you will receive more money for writing the option (remember high implied volatility = high option prices).
2. Secondly, if volatility is already at high levels compared to its historical range, there is statistically less chance of it going significantly higher. It is more likely to revert back to its ‘normal’ level over time.
Trading Tip
It is generally not appropriate to buy options during periods of high volatility. Both the high cost of the option and time decay are working against you. An out-of-the-money option, bought when volatility is high, requires a big price move in the underlying commodity in your favour, before expiry, to be profitable.
The same option bought when volatility is lower would firstly cost less, and secondly require a smaller move in the underlying market to become profitable. The option buyer will also benefit from any sudden rise in implied volatility as the option held becomes more expensive.
Just as it is not appropriate to buy options when volatility is high, it is also not appropriate to write options if volatility is at low levels compared to its historic range.
A sharp increase in volatility such as the one that occurred in the gold market in September 1999 (Figure 3) could see option premiums driven to extremely high levels. If you had written options when volatility was low and were forced to buy these options back after volatility exploded upwards, you could lose a lot more than you anticipated.
This situation may happen infrequently, but when it does happen, it can cause much grief to option writers who write options when volatility is low compared to its historical range.
Trading Tip
Option writing strategies should be initiated when implied volatility is high and near the top end of its historical range. Firstly, you can receive more money than if implied volatility was low (high option volatility = high option prices). Secondly, you can write ‘expensive’ options with exercise prices a long way from the current market price, with a much smaller probability of ever being reached.
An Example of an Option Writing Strategy
In late November 2000 a trade was recommended to clients in sugar. The trade was to write a put option and a call option. This strategy is known as a Written Strangle (also called a sold strangle).
Figure 4
Figure 4 shows how the strangle works. We are effectively trying to ‘strangle’ the market between the two prices (8 and 11.50) where we have written the options. We received a gross credit of USD$537.6. If the price of sugar stays between these two points at the expiry of the options, then you keep the whole premium. This is exactly what happened in this trade. The price of sugar finished between 8 and 11.50 and therefore the clients kept the premium.
In this example implied volatility was at a relatively high level compared to its historic range when we implemented the strategy. This meant that we were able to get a good premium for writing the options that were a good distance from where the current price of sugar was. Within a short period of time volatility declined. Both the 11.50 call option and 8.00 put option both lost value, which was beneficial for the strategy. This is a good example of a non-directional trading strategy that is only available to option traders.
Volatility Summary
Historical volatility is a measure of the probability of a market holding a given trading range over a period of time.
Historic volatility is based on the movement of the underlying market (eg gold).
Implied volatility is what option traders expect historical volatility will be in the future.
Low implied volatility = low option prices.
High implied volatility = high option prices.
Extreme bullish or bearish sentiment means higher implied option volatility, which also means higher option prices.
Flat sentiment found in range-bound and quiet markets will mean low implied option volatility and therefore lower option prices.

Lo mas importante en el trading...

StockTickr: What is the most common but easily correctable mistake you see traders make?

Michelle: Traders are often totally unaware of, or unwilling to control emotions, making it impossible to work at consciously channeling those controlled emotions into a focused edge. These traders, misguided and exhausted by such an emotional agenda, cannot identify, refine, and hone a methodology while consistently following a defined risk management approach. They are too wound up to let the market teach them. Their skill level remains poor, and they are no match for their competitors. The solution is to read The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas.

Lo mas importante en el trading...

StockTickr: What single lesson did you learn along the way that has helped you the most in your trading?
Dave: Patience. Patience in waiting for trades to setup. Patience in letting trades develop. I am speaking to intraday trading mostly with this as opposed to mechanical based systems.
I will also add because of it’s importance, Independence. I believe each successful trader believes in himself. Successful traders do not rely on other peoples opinions. They develop their own and are confident in those beliefs. Right or wrong.

jueves, noviembre 02, 2006

VAMO BLANQUINEGRO CARAJOOOO!!!!!!!







Pensar que ayer me quede en casa viendo ese horrible cero a cero de Boca y me podria haber ido a la canchita a ver al blanquinegro.....no se como voy, no se como vengoooo, al blanquinegro lo vengo a alentaaaaaaar........ TAMO TERCERO!!!!! QUE CAMPAÑA BARBARAAA!












Fénix volvió a sumar otra vez de a tres y se acercó al líder Acassuso





Derrotó 3-1 a Dock Sud, con goles de Maccarrone, Neuspiller y Godoy. El Águila buscó de entrada la diferencia y aprovechó las situaciones que generó en ataque. Quedó a 5 de la punta cuando restan 3 fechas.
El envión anímico que arrastra Fénix, tras sumar su cuarto triunfo consecutivo, se notó no sólo en el plantel sino también en la gente que ayer estuvo en el estadio municipal de Pilar para ver, entre semana, el éxito albinegro por 3 a 1 ante Dock Sud. Pero lo más importante es que empieza a soñar porque volvió a descontarle al líder del Torneo Apertura de la Primera C, Acassuso, que perdió 2-1 con Cañuelas. Con esta victoria, el Águila quedó a 5 puntos cuando restan 9 por jugar. Desde el minuto inicial Fénix fue el que intentó un poco más. Abrió la cancha pero carecía de potencia y precisión para definir las situaciones de riesgo. En el último cuarto de hora encontró la ventaja tras una buena jugada elaborada que definió Matías Maccarrone. Salió dormido en el arranque del complemento pero con el ingreso de Juan Pablo Villalba, más las proyecciones de la figura Gustavo Godoy, liquidó el pleito. Primero con un cabezazo de Sebastián Neuspiller y después con un centro de Godoy que desvió al fondo del arco Lionel Viniegra, para sellar un éxito que lo tiene como protagonista.
Mejor el localEl arranque del partido favoreció al local, que con más ímpetu y decisión fue a buscar la apertura del marcador. Neuspiller estaba impreciso, porque siempre, Agustín Cervi terminaba controlando los mano a mano. El arquero del Docke iba tomando protagonismo en el encuentro, ante un conjunto pilarense que buscaba pero no podía quebrar el cero. Finalmente a los 31 minutos y en un ataque furioso, el Águila consiguió abrir la cuenta. Pase de Neuspiller y la entrada en soledad de Maccarrone para que defina ante la salida del arquero. Antes Hugo Gianabella se lo perdía con un cabezazo que rebotó en la cabeza de Walter Alagastino y se fue por encima del travesaño. Con el 1-0, el local siguió buscando pero sin tanta presión. A partir de allí, Dock Sud, sin proponérselo, creció. Increíble. A los 33’ casi logra la paridad, cuando Víctor Malchiodi despejó rebotó en el árbitro Fernando Echenique que habilitó a Maximiliano Bonifatti. Pero allí Luciano Menón respondió y evitó la paridad. Neuspiller se perdió el segundo cuando se moría la etapa inicial. Pero otra vez apareció Cervi para evitarlo.
DormidoEn el complemento, Fénix salió dormido y el Docke con más voluntad lo metió contra un arco. A los 8’ y desde un centro sin sentido de Jorge Coria, Gianabella y Godoy miraban como la pelota pegaba en el poste y recorría todo el frente del arco. Ahí, Fénix zafó. Inmediatamente el local se perdía el 2º. Godoy encontró un mal despeje de Lionel Viniegra y cabeceó forzado por encima del travesaño. El ingreso de Juanpi Villalba posibilitó la reacción albinegra. Tomó la manija del partido y empezó a generar jugadas de riesgo. Desde su precisa pegada en las pelotas paradas Fénix llegó al 2-0, con un soberbio cabezazo de Neuspiller al 2º palo de Cervi. Partido liquidado, porque Dock Sud desapareció de la cancha. Sobre el final, a los 42’, otra gran jugada personal de Villalba, habilitó en profundidad a Godoy, quien llegó hasta el fondo y mandó el centro atrás. Viniegra en su afán por despejar no hizo más que empujarla al fondo del arco. 3-0 y a otra cosa. Pero Fénix se quedó en el festejo y en la contra, Máximo Cazenave dejó con todo el arco libre a Facundo Villalba, para el descuento. Fénix festejo un éxito más, pero sabe que depende de sí mismo para convertir en realidad ese sueño que se llama: título.






acin - Posible taza con mango???


Pego el post simplemente porque me llamo la atencion la formacion.

Por lo cual esto no quiere decir que pueda suceder. Para mi deberia realizar una correccion previa. Despues veamos como siguio.


viernes, octubre 27, 2006

martes, octubre 24, 2006

Fenix 3 - Argentino Rosario 0 (estamos cuartos)




La verdad ese sabado hizo un calor de putisima madre...inaguantable, me rompieron soberanamente las pelotas esos imbeciles que se creen las 12 y no llegan a 1/4 que putearon al dandy porque si, que lastima que el dandy despues les cerro el orto con un gol....vamos che carajo!!!
Son imbancables estos idiotas de Pilar....es una verdadera lastima que nunca me anime a participar de lo que era antes Fenix...ahi si se hubiese disfrutado.....

Conteo mantrelliano del merval

lunes, octubre 02, 2006