El fibzone a largo plazo mide de manera casi perfecta los niveles de rebote.
El "calentamiento" del macd por otro lado nos marca tambien los posibles momentos de correccion.
jueves, diciembre 28, 2006
Estallando desde el océano
Estallando desde el océano
Sumo.
She had my head on a plateWith her sweet and sour sauceShe was riding in her carI was riding on my horseNeck and neck along the roadWell, I have nothing left to hideSo, what a heckFirefly cars, women rushing pastThe road was long and the race was fastGradually I fell behindIt was the blind leading the blindIt was the blin leading the blindOver the hills, over the prairiesDown inthe pampa, up in the tundraAnd in Paris in spring. And in old PekinAnd in Katmandu. And in XanaduI'm bursting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanUh,Uh, it was another gas stationUh,Uh, it was another youUh,Uh, it was another gas stationUh,Uh, it was another you, and that's trueBabe, that's true and that's trueGimme this and gimme thatI've got no need for your bipperty, Bipperty, bippertyJust my horse and meJust my horse and meAnd in Timbuktu (what?) I'm busrting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanShoot outBurst out
Sumo.
She had my head on a plateWith her sweet and sour sauceShe was riding in her carI was riding on my horseNeck and neck along the roadWell, I have nothing left to hideSo, what a heckFirefly cars, women rushing pastThe road was long and the race was fastGradually I fell behindIt was the blind leading the blindIt was the blin leading the blindOver the hills, over the prairiesDown inthe pampa, up in the tundraAnd in Paris in spring. And in old PekinAnd in Katmandu. And in XanaduI'm bursting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanUh,Uh, it was another gas stationUh,Uh, it was another youUh,Uh, it was another gas stationUh,Uh, it was another you, and that's trueBabe, that's true and that's trueGimme this and gimme thatI've got no need for your bipperty, Bipperty, bippertyJust my horse and meJust my horse and meAnd in Timbuktu (what?) I'm busrting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanI'm bursting out of the oceanShoot outBurst out
miércoles, diciembre 27, 2006
The trader bostero zen
El arte de la arquería no es una habilidad atlética, que se llega a dominar más o menos mediante el entrenamiento físico, sino más bien una aptitud que tiene su origen en el ejercicio mental y cuyo objeto consiste en acertar en la diana mentalmente. «Por lo tanto, el arquero está básicamente apuntando a sí mismo. De este modo, quizás consiga acertar en la diana: su yo esencial.»Herrigel
sábado, diciembre 23, 2006
Error de Trading y Operacion en ACIN
Factores por el cual ha fallado mi operación en acin :
1) No compre el lote al final del dia como debiera haber sido.
2) El RSI no bajo lo suficiente a lo pautado. De haber pagado al final del dia hubiese tenido un margen mas amplio para considerar si la maniobra era factible o no.
3) El stocastico se adelanto 2 ruedas al cruce y eso no suele suceder. Por eso fallo el trade principalemente cuando aun el RSI no habia llegado al limite establecido. El haberse adelantado 2 ruedas el trade se comio sin mas mi stop loss. Aunque el rebote era inminente preferia resguardar el capital. Por como estaba el grafico parecia que corregiria para luego el papel activar una divergencia y recien salir.
Temas a tener muy en cuenta :
1) Factor tiempo. Es FUN-DA-MEN-TAL. El fibzone marco una vez mas, el momento perfecto del rebote. Hay que ser muy cautos al operar tan “sensible” cuando hay un margen de tiempo de correccion muy largo.
1) No compre el lote al final del dia como debiera haber sido.
2) El RSI no bajo lo suficiente a lo pautado. De haber pagado al final del dia hubiese tenido un margen mas amplio para considerar si la maniobra era factible o no.
3) El stocastico se adelanto 2 ruedas al cruce y eso no suele suceder. Por eso fallo el trade principalemente cuando aun el RSI no habia llegado al limite establecido. El haberse adelantado 2 ruedas el trade se comio sin mas mi stop loss. Aunque el rebote era inminente preferia resguardar el capital. Por como estaba el grafico parecia que corregiria para luego el papel activar una divergencia y recien salir.
Temas a tener muy en cuenta :
1) Factor tiempo. Es FUN-DA-MEN-TAL. El fibzone marco una vez mas, el momento perfecto del rebote. Hay que ser muy cautos al operar tan “sensible” cuando hay un margen de tiempo de correccion muy largo.
Conclusión :
Operar papeles con correcciones importantes es totalmente distinto a operar papeles con correccion en factor tiempo cortas. En marcos de tiempo corto los osciladores reaccionan mucho mejor que en marcos de tiempo largos. Es es el principal factor de porque fallo mi operación de compra en acin y tuve que ejecutar el stop loss porque no tenia mas margen de movimiento ya que las correcciones posteriores habian comido mi margen de SL.
Tarea de la semana :
Analizar el movimiento del grafico para determinar diferentes escenarios posibles y de esa manera determinar pautas de operación para este nuevo tiempo de movimientos.
Moraleja :
No hay mal que por bien no venga.
miércoles, diciembre 20, 2006
viernes, diciembre 15, 2006
jueves, diciembre 14, 2006
Que los tiro
Que los tiró
Por Leviathan
Desde el país tropical, me voy haciendo cargo.Ante nada, mis más sinceras felicitaciones al mejor equipo del campeonato que tantos simpatizantes tiene en este foro... Pincha, Zucho, Alek... Tuvieron el mejor equipo y el mejor técnico de la temporada. Disfrutenlo que lo merecen (No los vuelvan locos a Fran y a Lanza tampoco...)Ahora... Los otros.. los amargos, los fracasados, los pataduras, los llorones, los pechofríos, que hace 20 años no traen algo de otro continente... Yo cuando me hice de Boca, fue cuando recién habíamos vuelto de Brasil. Un Boca qu etenía la Bombonera clausurada, más de 400 embargos, no tenía camisetas, no tenía jugadores, pero tenía algo con lo que ustedes ni siquiera han soñado en tener: Algo que se llama mística, sentimiento, amor a una pasión incontrolable.Más de uno me dijo: Hacete de Argentinos boludo. La familia de tu viejo es de Villa Mitre, y el bicho está haciendo estragos.Yo no me hice hincha de un pentacampeón de libertadores, ni tricampeón de intercontinentales... Estoy orgulloso de haberme hecho hincha de un Boca que solo tenía sentimientos, pasión, esperanza... Y cuando uno alimenta eso que sale directamente del corazón, uno logra libertadores, intercontinentales, recopas, ser reconocido como el club no europeo más importante del mundo. En momentos en que el Inter de Porto Alegre juega el mundial de clubes, veo por Brasil más camisetas de Boquita que del Inter o del Barça donde juega Ronaldinho.Eso no se logra siendo gallina. Eso se logra con mística. Lástima que nunca van a tener claro ese concepto.Me hacen recordar la definición de cínico que tenía oscar Wilde. El cínico es el que conoce el precio de todo y el valor de nada. Si pierden dos partidos ya les duele ir a la cancha y les tajean las gomas de los neumáticos al plantel. Acá se valoró el esfuerzo y se aplaudió de pie. Sin disturbios, sin incidentes. Solo con mística bostera y pasión xeneise.Mi más cordial saludo.
Por Leviathan
Desde el país tropical, me voy haciendo cargo.Ante nada, mis más sinceras felicitaciones al mejor equipo del campeonato que tantos simpatizantes tiene en este foro... Pincha, Zucho, Alek... Tuvieron el mejor equipo y el mejor técnico de la temporada. Disfrutenlo que lo merecen (No los vuelvan locos a Fran y a Lanza tampoco...)Ahora... Los otros.. los amargos, los fracasados, los pataduras, los llorones, los pechofríos, que hace 20 años no traen algo de otro continente... Yo cuando me hice de Boca, fue cuando recién habíamos vuelto de Brasil. Un Boca qu etenía la Bombonera clausurada, más de 400 embargos, no tenía camisetas, no tenía jugadores, pero tenía algo con lo que ustedes ni siquiera han soñado en tener: Algo que se llama mística, sentimiento, amor a una pasión incontrolable.Más de uno me dijo: Hacete de Argentinos boludo. La familia de tu viejo es de Villa Mitre, y el bicho está haciendo estragos.Yo no me hice hincha de un pentacampeón de libertadores, ni tricampeón de intercontinentales... Estoy orgulloso de haberme hecho hincha de un Boca que solo tenía sentimientos, pasión, esperanza... Y cuando uno alimenta eso que sale directamente del corazón, uno logra libertadores, intercontinentales, recopas, ser reconocido como el club no europeo más importante del mundo. En momentos en que el Inter de Porto Alegre juega el mundial de clubes, veo por Brasil más camisetas de Boquita que del Inter o del Barça donde juega Ronaldinho.Eso no se logra siendo gallina. Eso se logra con mística. Lástima que nunca van a tener claro ese concepto.Me hacen recordar la definición de cínico que tenía oscar Wilde. El cínico es el que conoce el precio de todo y el valor de nada. Si pierden dos partidos ya les duele ir a la cancha y les tajean las gomas de los neumáticos al plantel. Acá se valoró el esfuerzo y se aplaudió de pie. Sin disturbios, sin incidentes. Solo con mística bostera y pasión xeneise.Mi más cordial saludo.
viernes, diciembre 08, 2006
No hay que olvidarse hoy de armar el arbolito!
buen fin de semana, el dia hoy pinta joya para boludear a 2 manos...
Fibonacci Time Zone
No deja nunca de sorprenderme la hermosa precision del fibonacci time zone. Es tan sutil la precision que no dejo de maravillar por ello...
jueves, diciembre 07, 2006
miércoles, diciembre 06, 2006
Cambiar el principio del trading
cristian dice:
busque x todos los medios algun indicio que me diera entrada para pagar bsud y no encontre nada en este ultimo tramo ascendente
cristian dice:
llegue a la conclusion q en una situacion asi hay que pagar nomas y clavarse un buen stop y que sea lo duhalde quiera
Nestor dice:
sep. asi es para eso etan los stop
Nestor dice:
creo que hay que cambiar o intentar cambiar el principio del trading.
Nestor dice:
vio que tratamos de encontrar el punto de entrada en la salida del mov.
Nestor dice:
y asi uno se pierde infinidad de movimientos o peor. lo hacen salir apurado
Nestor dice:
por que como uno entra en el inicio del mov. teme que no este coinfirmado y sale
Nestor dice:
habria que empezar a perder el miedo a pagar en movimientos avanzados
Nestor dice:
y usar el stop
busque x todos los medios algun indicio que me diera entrada para pagar bsud y no encontre nada en este ultimo tramo ascendente
cristian dice:
llegue a la conclusion q en una situacion asi hay que pagar nomas y clavarse un buen stop y que sea lo duhalde quiera
Nestor dice:
sep. asi es para eso etan los stop
Nestor dice:
creo que hay que cambiar o intentar cambiar el principio del trading.
Nestor dice:
vio que tratamos de encontrar el punto de entrada en la salida del mov.
Nestor dice:
y asi uno se pierde infinidad de movimientos o peor. lo hacen salir apurado
Nestor dice:
por que como uno entra en el inicio del mov. teme que no este coinfirmado y sale
Nestor dice:
habria que empezar a perder el miedo a pagar en movimientos avanzados
Nestor dice:
y usar el stop
Particularidad especial entre ggal y bsud
Lo interesante es la vela blanca cerrando encima de la banda bollinger y como se hicieron las aperturas de las bandas. Podra replicar ggal ese movimiento que hizo bsud???
Merval Argentina
Rompio al final la linea de resistencia de mediano plazo.
Dos veces lo testeo y no pudo sortearlo. La tercera es la vencida.
martes, diciembre 05, 2006
Una forma de replicar la volatilidad implicita
La semana pasada lei detenidamente ese articulo acerca de la correlacion entre la volatilidad de un papel y las bandas bollinger. Mi hipotesis actual de trabajo consiste verificar si dicha correlacion puede realizarse para papeles del Merval. Ahora he probado fehacientemente que el movimiento de las wbb replica el movimiento de la volatilidad del VIX.
En las flechas he marcado las zonas donde la volatilidad ha marcado pivots y como se traslada inmediatamente al movimiento de las bollinger. Lo que se me ocurre tambien es contrastar este movimiento contra la volatilidad historica. Lo que si es que para mercados de afuera marca muy bien el nivel de la VI.
En las flechas he marcado las zonas donde la volatilidad ha marcado pivots y como se traslada inmediatamente al movimiento de las bollinger. Lo que se me ocurre tambien es contrastar este movimiento contra la volatilidad historica. Lo que si es que para mercados de afuera marca muy bien el nivel de la VI.
SCHLESISCHE LANDSCHAFT - 24 De Mayo De 1772
PAISAJE de SCHLESI de la REGLA de las CONDICIONES del FUERSTENTHUEMER BRESLAU, BRIEG, enlace de hipoteca privilegiado de TRACHENBERG 3.5% sobre 100 Reichsthaler Courant 14 Rtlhr. por Marck fino-contado # 15; Breslau, El 24 De Mayo De 1772; Color: amarillento, negro; Masa: 19.4 X 32.2; Presión de VF en la piel animal. Templo de la rueda de manejo; estampillas del rechtsseitig y del interés trasero a Johanni y a Weihnachten1897. Firmas originales del Herzogl. Herrl de Curland Freylandes. Gobierno de la montaña que espera, entre otras cosas. Guttmann, Marzin, el director posterior del paisaje G. Sv. Drost, de Garnier etc.. El paisaje de Schlesi es el Kreditinstitut más viejo de su clase. Era erichtet de Friedrich II. el grande, por orden del gabinete el 15 de de junio de de 1770 y originalmente consistido en 9 cuerpos autónomos, el Fuerstenthumlandschaften supuesto, que designación y divisiones fueron copiadas de principalities anteriores. En el punto la gerencia central de Schlesi estaba parada como autoridad administrativa central para el landschaftliche entero. Los paisajes del principado fueron disueltos por la ley Prussian por el 12.November 1933 el 1 de febrero eficaz de 1934 y sus fortunas en el landschaftliche entero, que transfieren el paisaje de Schlesi. Este enlace de hipoteca ofreció aquí a filas aparte de otro certificado bien conocido entre los más viejos, bien conocidos enlaces de hipoteca. ¡Pedazo raro!!!
Segundo canal ascendente en bsud
Abrio sin correccion otro canal alcista. La velocidad de la pendiente ahora es terrible. Meten y meten.
jueves, noviembre 30, 2006
Humildad ante el mercado
Excelente comentario.....
Al parecer esto es todo suba…. En estos momentos del ejercicio las primas se destruyen con muchísima facilidad, las operatorias más exitosas y con ganancias más rápidas están en la venta… La tendencia en este ejercicio fue claramente alcista, todos los sistemas funcionaron, todos estamos contentos por los aciertos y el crecimiento de nuestros saldos… pero no olvidemos que la operaria que pasó es la más fácil de todas y que el mercado es simétrico con la suba y la baja. La verdad es que hay que caminar con pie de plomo, suma prudencia, y con humildad absoluta ante el Dios Mercado.
Jue 30 Nov 2006 9:58 am
miércoles, noviembre 29, 2006
Ciclos y fibonacci
Los movimientos son rapidos. Los osciladores no alcanzan a absorber el movimiento debidamente ya que solo pueden seguir la tendencial respetando el marco de “normalidad”. No hay normalidad parece ser y los 2000 puntos son un hecho sin mas. Solo 39 puntos del merval nos separan de ese nivel psicológico, ya que la anterior barrera (1952.93) ha sido demolidad hoy(1961.18).
El unico movimiento destacable que si y solo si absorbe como buen amortiguador los movimientos (valga la redundancia) son los fibonacci. Ya lo decia mantrell que el comportamiento actual del indice es otrora otras epocas : las correcciones solo respetaban como soportes los fibos. Sin mas. Es asi.
El movimiento del 27-nov hizo soporte sobre el miniciclo zigzag del 61.8% y de alli salio disparado. Me cuesta aun asumir esta situación pero suerte lo he realizado a tiempo.
Con esto queda allanado los caminos del 2000. Llegaremos esta semana o la que viene?
El unico movimiento destacable que si y solo si absorbe como buen amortiguador los movimientos (valga la redundancia) son los fibonacci. Ya lo decia mantrell que el comportamiento actual del indice es otrora otras epocas : las correcciones solo respetaban como soportes los fibos. Sin mas. Es asi.
El movimiento del 27-nov hizo soporte sobre el miniciclo zigzag del 61.8% y de alli salio disparado. Me cuesta aun asumir esta situación pero suerte lo he realizado a tiempo.
Con esto queda allanado los caminos del 2000. Llegaremos esta semana o la que viene?
lunes, noviembre 27, 2006
Correccion
Si la correccion esta en marcha los targets serian para el merval argentina :
1324 (38.2)
1300 (50.0)
Targets posibles de papeles :
Ggal (2.34) : 2.22
Acin (4.73) : 4.60/4.50
Erar (22.40) : 21.5
Los teddis duermen tranquilos. Buenas dias.
1324 (38.2)
1300 (50.0)
Targets posibles de papeles :
Ggal (2.34) : 2.22
Acin (4.73) : 4.60/4.50
Erar (22.40) : 21.5
Los teddis duermen tranquilos. Buenas dias.
El viernes decia :
Demasiada euforia instalada Merval
Demasiada euforia instalada Se puede apreciar en los foros la euforia desmedida. Cualquier papel garcha sube, cualquiera es analista y festeja el acierto por demas. La euforia llega a niveles que no se festejan los aciertos sino se exarceba por demas el haber dejado de comprar!Demasiada euforia que nos indicaria algun nivel de inicio de distribucion. En un par de semanas sabremos...
Etiquetas: Merval
de Quesnay
24/11/06
Demasiada euforia instalada Merval
Demasiada euforia instalada Se puede apreciar en los foros la euforia desmedida. Cualquier papel garcha sube, cualquiera es analista y festeja el acierto por demas. La euforia llega a niveles que no se festejan los aciertos sino se exarceba por demas el haber dejado de comprar!Demasiada euforia que nos indicaria algun nivel de inicio de distribucion. En un par de semanas sabremos...
Etiquetas: Merval
de Quesnay
24/11/06
La verdad no tuvimos que esperar dos semanas para ver que rapido limpiaron el market. Sres bienvenidos a la esperada correccion.
domingo, noviembre 26, 2006
Ya se acerca nochebuenaa, ya se acerca navidad!!!!!
Falta tan poco!!!! Estos pinchas del toor que siguen ganando!!! Y nosotros que seguimos ganando sufriendo!!!!! Por Dios!!!! ya tolero tan poco sufrir asi jugando a veces para el orto, pero somos boquita y ese es nuestro espiritu!!!!
Salud TRI-TRI-TRI!!!!!!!
viernes, noviembre 24, 2006
Demasiada euforia instalada
Se puede apreciar en los foros la euforia desmedida. Cualquier papel garcha sube, cualquiera es analista y festeja el acierto por demas. La euforia llega a niveles que no se festejan los aciertos sino se exarceba por demas el haber dejado de comprar!
Demasiada euforia que nos indicaria algun nivel de inicio de distribucion. En un par de semanas sabremos...
Demasiada euforia que nos indicaria algun nivel de inicio de distribucion. En un par de semanas sabremos...
Libro Trading recomendable
Me baje del burro este libro. Me parecio muy bueno porque en los charts contiene muchas anotaciones hechas a mano y esto sirve para demostrar mejor lo que piensa el trader.
El respeto por lo superior....
Venia escuchando en la radio la epopeya de Tommy Heinrich y no pude sin mas recordar esas epocas de pendejo donde hice durante un tiempo escalada en el Cenard. Años despues de haber escuchado a este eximio escalador me doy cuenta como siempre se debe respetar a lo que lo supera a uno. Nunca mas bien identificado con el mercado. Al mercado se lo respeta y no se lo subestima.
"Su epopeya mental y física consistente en escalar –y en poder escalar, con todo el trabajo previo que implica–excede absolutamente lo deportivo, e insume un sacrificio extra, como si fuera un arte. " - dice un reportaje que encontre en la red.
Lastima que ya se me paso el colectivo con la escalada, pero las similitudes espirituales me siguen sirviendo como aquella vez...
jueves, noviembre 23, 2006
Michael Milken: 15 Years Later
Considering Michael Milken: 15 Years Laterby:
David Silverman
Milken was front-page news for his junk bond indiscretions just 15 years ago. Can he be forgiven?
One recent morning when the markets were slow, the topic of the day among some traders turned to Barry Bonds – specifically whether Major League Baseball should expunge the San Francisco slugger’s extraordinary hitting achievements from the record book because he used steroids. This led to further discussion about whether Bonds should be admitted into the Hall of Fame when he retires. There seemed to be a consensus that he should not be so honored; that severe punishment must be meted out to anyone who breaks the rules of baseball.While I am reasonably certain if an illegal drug were invented that improved trading performance, every one of these Machiavellians would hook themselves to an IV drip at the start of tomorrow’s trading session; this “judge, lest ye be judged first” attitude only mirrors society’s tendency to hold celebrities to a higher standard. It is, of course, in the court of public opinion that public perception is formed, and with the contempt in which he is held by most fans in the wake of the scandal, Bonds could spend the rest of his life working with lepers and still not emerge from disgrace. It is an unfortunate reality in the 21st century that once People magazine renders a negative verdict, it becomes extremely difficult for the convicted to win back hearts and minds. Legacies are subjective judgments, determined in trading rooms, offices and bars, in newspapers, books, on television, and in the case of Barry Bonds, in the right-field bleachers.While I don’t care much about Barry Bonds, this subject is interesting because it has been almost 15 years since Michael Milken walked into a federal penitentiary in November 1990 to begin his sentence for securities fraud, and the similarities between the two cases are inescapable. Like Bonds, Milken accomplished unimaginable feats, got caught breaking the rules of his game, disappointed his friends and colleagues and caused serious economic damage as a result of his transgressions. Public opinion about him is deeply entrenched.But the similarity between Milken and Bonds or any other public figure caught with a hand in the cookie jar must be seen in context. Unlike Milken, none of them created a multi-trillion-dollar market from scratch; none enabled hundreds of companies to grow and prosper; none earned billons in salary and trading profits; none paid more than a billion dollars in penalties; none have contributed hundreds of millions to charity; none are credited with saving thousands of potential victims of prostate and other cancers, and none of them are changing the way that medical research is funded, conducted and shared.Milken is one of those rare individuals whose accomplishments and blunders are so gargantuan that they force us to view him as larger than life. It is one thing to hit 73 home runs; it is quite another to change the world. The true impact of extraordinary human beings can only be properly determined by future generations. But that never stops us in the here and now from taking a crack at it.One Man’s Junk Is Another Man’s TreasureQuestion: What do Ted Turner, Craig McCaw, Sumner Redstone, Barry Diller, Ron Perelman, Michael Eisner, John Malone and Rupert Murdoch have in common, besides a spot on the annual Forbes list of richest Americans? Answer: Michael Milken, who put them there. It should be noted that Milken’s name is on that list as well – and all because of a whole lot of junk.Junk, of course, refers to high-yield instruments companies issue when they do not have sufficient collateral to tap into traditional debt markets. Essentially, companies that have fallen on hard times or start-ups with little revenue are forced to offer investors a higher rate of return than more stable companies whose prospects seem comparatively secure. The term “junk,” which even today is used in place of the more accurate and less pejorative “high-yield,” indicates what Wall Street thinks about this type of financing. Wall Street, as it turns out, was way behind Milken in its understanding of how these instruments could be used to build businesses, motivate managers, promote accountability or stimulate investment in technology and new industries.Milken’s genius was in recognizing two things that seem self-evident now, but which were considered dangerous heresy 35 years ago when he began his career with an obscure investment bank named Drexel. First, following the teachings of academics W. Braddock Hickman and Thomas R. Atkinson, Milken knew that high-yield bonds tend to perform better than highly rated instruments over the long run. But, you ask, what about defaults? It turns out that the principle holds true even after taking into consideration the possibility that some junky companies will fail; the majority won’t, and the premium that is paid over market interest rates is fair compensation for the risk the investor assumes. The second insight seems counterintuitive on its face but is no less empirically valid: the best returns in corporate bonds occur when the market is pessimistic, and the worst, when the market is confident. By determining the degree to which the market is overly pessimistic or overly confident, the prescient investor can buy debt at a discount or sell at a premium to the true value of the instrument. As the market for junk proliferated in the late 1970s and throughout the ‘80s, Milken made his company, himself, the traders who worked with him and his clients fabulously wealthy because he knew the true value of these securities better than anyone on the planet.In general, there were two ways that Milken employed high-yield securities. Most of the deals he created were intended to raise capital for companies that wanted to restructure or grow, but that, for a variety of reasons, could not raise money without paying a premium to investors. High-yield bonds would be issued, and Milken and his salesmen would sell them to investors. Their compensation came in the form of sales commissions, but often Drexel would buy a portion of the offering for its own account and profit eventually if there were gains. In those years, Milken’s bonds performed spectacularly well, and acting as both principal and agent enabled Drexel to extract the maximum profit from Milken’s work.Milken received at least a third of every dollar made. A second purpose was for leveraged buyouts, more commonly known as LBOs. In an LBO, the buyer of a company borrows funds to purchase the company, using the company itself as collateral for the loans. Because some hostile takeovers during the 1980s were financed by means of an LBO, Milken’s name became associated with this sometimes distasteful practice, notwithstanding the fact that only a small percentage of junk bond deals – on the order of three percent of the entire total between 1980-86 – were used in hostile takeovers.When Gordon Gekko, the corrupt corporate raider in the 1987 movie Wall Street, lectured that “greed is good, greed works,” it was the infamous Ivan Boesky who was being skewered. Boesky, who around that time was exposed as a petty thief in an expensive suit, was an associate of Milken’s – one of countless money managers with whom Milken communicated and did deals. Yet when Milken’s compensation of $550 million in 1987 was disclosed, a year in which most Americans saw their own net worth plunge, the country’s collective enmity focused almost exclusively on Milken. When the attorney general of New York, a determined prosecutor named Rudolph Giuliani, took aim at Milken, it was clear that the government would do whatever it took to send the financier to jail.This is not to absolve Milken of responsibility for his downfall. He ultimately plead guilty to six relatively minor counts of securities wrongdoing, and the saga of the legal battles leading to his capitulation is well documented in dozens of books. Some critics excoriate Milken while others allege that he was the victim of a massive government witch hunt: a perfect scapegoat for the stock market crash, for the jobs and pensions lost in corporate raids, for handmade alligator shoes, power ties and silk suspenders decorated with dollar signs.One thing about which virtually everyone agreed is that Milken represented what disgusts people most about Wall Street – the desire to win at any cost. It was difficult for workers who lost their jobs because managers with stock options wanted to boost profits to feel any sympathy for or empathy with a man who made $550 million in a single year. They could not see that junk bonds enabled existing and new companies to flourish instead of wither, to employ thousands of workers who otherwise would have been terminated, to create thousands of new jobs, or to promote exciting new technologies in a dozen industries that improved the quality of life for millions. For those workers, Milken’s paycheck was evidence enough that he must be guilty of some heinous crime. In the end, all they saw were the garish suspenders.Beyond Junk, Beyond Markets: Michael Milken’s Greatest Challenge“It is time to rethink the War on Cancer, moving from a war of attrition to a new plan of attack…the solution lies in a committed and sustained international mobilization…financial and human capital from around the world needs to be mobilized. At the same time we must dramatically expand the level of private sector involvement… to create “virtual laboratories” that will enable researchers to collaborate and pool their resources without wasteful duplication of time and effort.”These are the words of Michael Milken in a speech delivered at the National Cancer Summit in Washington, D.C., in November of 1995, about two years after his release from prison. It also happened to be about two years from the time he was diagnosed with prostate cancer and told he had, at most, 18 months to live.Unwilling to accept the dire prognosis, Milken attacked cancer in the same aggressive manner as he conducted the affairs of his trading operation. A student again, he educated himself about the disease, using his prodigious intellect to devour medical textbooks, journals, mainstream and alternative literature. He studied standard cures and combined his chemotherapy and radiation treatments with homeopathic remedies. He radically altered his diet from a trader’s cheeseburger-centric menu to one that included soy products, colorful fruits and leafy vegetables. He began to practice yoga and set aside time each day for meditation. He also was determined to learn everything he could about the way disease is studied – how it is funded and managed and how researchers turn their findings into practical applications. This was no academic exercise, nor was there a commercial goal in sight. Milken was determined to save his life by eradicating prostate cancer before it could kill him.The more Milken learned, the more appalled he became at the waste and pointlessness of much of the research that was being performed. It became clear to him that he could play a vital role in helping to transform an inefficient system. The 1995 speech to the National Cancer Summit is his manifesto, in which he spells out ten specific principles that will save countless lives and result eventually in the eradication of many kinds of diseases, including various types of cancer. Central to these principles is a fundamental recognition that the United States must lead the way in this massive worldwide mobilization. (Milken’s manifesto and imperatives – in fact, the entire speech, entitled “Rethinking the War on Cancer” – can be found on the Internet at http://www.fastercures.org/sec/war_on_cancer.Milken’s ideas were embraced slowly at first. But as positive results started flowing in – for example, it is estimated that thousands of lives have been saved simply by educating the at-risk population that one needs to be vigilant in searching for evidence of prostate or breast cancer in order to catch it early when it is relatively easy to treat – the medical establishment could not ignore the persuasive logic of Milken’s reasoning.In ensuing years, a decade since his death sentence was delivered, Milken personally contributed and raised hundreds of millions to fund research and educate the public (his Prostate Cancer Foundation is the largest private sponsor of prostate cancer research) and worked tirelessly to convince doctors, researchers and bureaucrats as to the worth of his approach. Amazingly, every personal strength that Milken used to rule the junk bond market played a part in his “takeover” of the medical establishment – his passion to win, intellectual acuity, highly evolved sales skills, vast personal wealth (even after paying over a billion dollars to settle his case in 1990, he still remains a billionaire, according to many sources), and intense desire to prolong his own life.In a recent interview, Milken provided some insight into the connection between his past and present endeavors: “I believe the person who waits for 110 percent of the facts to be in…is a person who is not alive because it’s too late for him. I worked in a field where ten seconds is a long decision process…now people will say, that’s a short period of time, and I say, no, it’s not. I’ve prepared my entire life to make that decision…getting off that inertia of making a decision qualifies well in building something.”In a November 29, 2004, Fortune magazine cover story, entitled “The Man Who Changed Medicine: Thousands of Men are Living Longer and Leaders Everywhere Are Taking Notice,” Milken is praised for galvanizing almost inconceivable progress in the war against prostate cancer. In fact, since he became involved, the death rate has declined four times more than for other types of cancer.Moreover, Milken’s work has been credited with influencing other philanthropists and high profile individuals who have been affected by sickness to commit their own resources and efforts. Bill Gates is intimately involved in a campaign to eradicate malaria; Lee Iacocca is a leader in the war against diabetes; Michael J. Fox is committed to finding a cure to Parkinson’s Disease; the late Christopher Reeve and Dana Reeve have led in the battle to cure spinal cord injuries; Lance Armstrong is known as much for his Live Strong Foundation as for riding a bicycle through the French countryside; and countless celebrities have come forward in the battle against breast cancer, AIDS and many other diseases that might otherwise remain unknown and unresearched. While these are separate efforts, they are all connected by a similar thread. Michael Milken has convinced people that it is not enough to simply write a check, but that fighting a disease is like fighting a war, and no war has ever been won without profound personal commitment and sacrifice.“Michael Milken changed the culture of medical research… what he’s done is now the model,” says Andrew Von Eschenbach, director of the National Cancer Institute. It is interesting to note that if one were to replace the words “medical research” with the word “investing,” the statement would be equally indisputable. Of Redemption and Legacy: Can We Forgive the Sins of Michael Milken?Clearly the work Michael Milken has done in the last decade has earned him a measure of respect and gratitude in the public arena. Perhaps the most interesting thing that has been said comes from Rudy Giuliani, the man who sent Milken to prison and now is his close personal friend. Bound together by history, and in one of those curious coincidences that hints that events are not random, the prostate cancer that afflicts them both, Giuliani says, “I realize now that I didn’t know him then. The man I know now is able to do tremendous things. He took the tremendous talent he had in business and is using it to fight prostate cancer. What more could you ask for?”Notwithstanding the platitudes, there remain many people in the financial world who will never forgive Milken’s transgressions, and it is not so easy to dismiss the criticisms of these naysayers as illegitimate. The Milken saga raises profound existential questions, most notably: Does the end justify the means, and are some crimes so reprehensible that they cannot be excused? These are questions that I am hardly competent to answer, and unless they change the name of this publication to Stock, Futures and Philosophy, perhaps somewhat out of place. But I do know one thing. Whatever you think about Michael Milken, if, at your next checkup, your doctor tells you that your PSA level is elevated, you are extremely fortunate that Michael Milken is no longer locked up in prison serving time for securities fraud.
David Silverman
Milken was front-page news for his junk bond indiscretions just 15 years ago. Can he be forgiven?
One recent morning when the markets were slow, the topic of the day among some traders turned to Barry Bonds – specifically whether Major League Baseball should expunge the San Francisco slugger’s extraordinary hitting achievements from the record book because he used steroids. This led to further discussion about whether Bonds should be admitted into the Hall of Fame when he retires. There seemed to be a consensus that he should not be so honored; that severe punishment must be meted out to anyone who breaks the rules of baseball.While I am reasonably certain if an illegal drug were invented that improved trading performance, every one of these Machiavellians would hook themselves to an IV drip at the start of tomorrow’s trading session; this “judge, lest ye be judged first” attitude only mirrors society’s tendency to hold celebrities to a higher standard. It is, of course, in the court of public opinion that public perception is formed, and with the contempt in which he is held by most fans in the wake of the scandal, Bonds could spend the rest of his life working with lepers and still not emerge from disgrace. It is an unfortunate reality in the 21st century that once People magazine renders a negative verdict, it becomes extremely difficult for the convicted to win back hearts and minds. Legacies are subjective judgments, determined in trading rooms, offices and bars, in newspapers, books, on television, and in the case of Barry Bonds, in the right-field bleachers.While I don’t care much about Barry Bonds, this subject is interesting because it has been almost 15 years since Michael Milken walked into a federal penitentiary in November 1990 to begin his sentence for securities fraud, and the similarities between the two cases are inescapable. Like Bonds, Milken accomplished unimaginable feats, got caught breaking the rules of his game, disappointed his friends and colleagues and caused serious economic damage as a result of his transgressions. Public opinion about him is deeply entrenched.But the similarity between Milken and Bonds or any other public figure caught with a hand in the cookie jar must be seen in context. Unlike Milken, none of them created a multi-trillion-dollar market from scratch; none enabled hundreds of companies to grow and prosper; none earned billons in salary and trading profits; none paid more than a billion dollars in penalties; none have contributed hundreds of millions to charity; none are credited with saving thousands of potential victims of prostate and other cancers, and none of them are changing the way that medical research is funded, conducted and shared.Milken is one of those rare individuals whose accomplishments and blunders are so gargantuan that they force us to view him as larger than life. It is one thing to hit 73 home runs; it is quite another to change the world. The true impact of extraordinary human beings can only be properly determined by future generations. But that never stops us in the here and now from taking a crack at it.One Man’s Junk Is Another Man’s TreasureQuestion: What do Ted Turner, Craig McCaw, Sumner Redstone, Barry Diller, Ron Perelman, Michael Eisner, John Malone and Rupert Murdoch have in common, besides a spot on the annual Forbes list of richest Americans? Answer: Michael Milken, who put them there. It should be noted that Milken’s name is on that list as well – and all because of a whole lot of junk.Junk, of course, refers to high-yield instruments companies issue when they do not have sufficient collateral to tap into traditional debt markets. Essentially, companies that have fallen on hard times or start-ups with little revenue are forced to offer investors a higher rate of return than more stable companies whose prospects seem comparatively secure. The term “junk,” which even today is used in place of the more accurate and less pejorative “high-yield,” indicates what Wall Street thinks about this type of financing. Wall Street, as it turns out, was way behind Milken in its understanding of how these instruments could be used to build businesses, motivate managers, promote accountability or stimulate investment in technology and new industries.Milken’s genius was in recognizing two things that seem self-evident now, but which were considered dangerous heresy 35 years ago when he began his career with an obscure investment bank named Drexel. First, following the teachings of academics W. Braddock Hickman and Thomas R. Atkinson, Milken knew that high-yield bonds tend to perform better than highly rated instruments over the long run. But, you ask, what about defaults? It turns out that the principle holds true even after taking into consideration the possibility that some junky companies will fail; the majority won’t, and the premium that is paid over market interest rates is fair compensation for the risk the investor assumes. The second insight seems counterintuitive on its face but is no less empirically valid: the best returns in corporate bonds occur when the market is pessimistic, and the worst, when the market is confident. By determining the degree to which the market is overly pessimistic or overly confident, the prescient investor can buy debt at a discount or sell at a premium to the true value of the instrument. As the market for junk proliferated in the late 1970s and throughout the ‘80s, Milken made his company, himself, the traders who worked with him and his clients fabulously wealthy because he knew the true value of these securities better than anyone on the planet.In general, there were two ways that Milken employed high-yield securities. Most of the deals he created were intended to raise capital for companies that wanted to restructure or grow, but that, for a variety of reasons, could not raise money without paying a premium to investors. High-yield bonds would be issued, and Milken and his salesmen would sell them to investors. Their compensation came in the form of sales commissions, but often Drexel would buy a portion of the offering for its own account and profit eventually if there were gains. In those years, Milken’s bonds performed spectacularly well, and acting as both principal and agent enabled Drexel to extract the maximum profit from Milken’s work.Milken received at least a third of every dollar made. A second purpose was for leveraged buyouts, more commonly known as LBOs. In an LBO, the buyer of a company borrows funds to purchase the company, using the company itself as collateral for the loans. Because some hostile takeovers during the 1980s were financed by means of an LBO, Milken’s name became associated with this sometimes distasteful practice, notwithstanding the fact that only a small percentage of junk bond deals – on the order of three percent of the entire total between 1980-86 – were used in hostile takeovers.When Gordon Gekko, the corrupt corporate raider in the 1987 movie Wall Street, lectured that “greed is good, greed works,” it was the infamous Ivan Boesky who was being skewered. Boesky, who around that time was exposed as a petty thief in an expensive suit, was an associate of Milken’s – one of countless money managers with whom Milken communicated and did deals. Yet when Milken’s compensation of $550 million in 1987 was disclosed, a year in which most Americans saw their own net worth plunge, the country’s collective enmity focused almost exclusively on Milken. When the attorney general of New York, a determined prosecutor named Rudolph Giuliani, took aim at Milken, it was clear that the government would do whatever it took to send the financier to jail.This is not to absolve Milken of responsibility for his downfall. He ultimately plead guilty to six relatively minor counts of securities wrongdoing, and the saga of the legal battles leading to his capitulation is well documented in dozens of books. Some critics excoriate Milken while others allege that he was the victim of a massive government witch hunt: a perfect scapegoat for the stock market crash, for the jobs and pensions lost in corporate raids, for handmade alligator shoes, power ties and silk suspenders decorated with dollar signs.One thing about which virtually everyone agreed is that Milken represented what disgusts people most about Wall Street – the desire to win at any cost. It was difficult for workers who lost their jobs because managers with stock options wanted to boost profits to feel any sympathy for or empathy with a man who made $550 million in a single year. They could not see that junk bonds enabled existing and new companies to flourish instead of wither, to employ thousands of workers who otherwise would have been terminated, to create thousands of new jobs, or to promote exciting new technologies in a dozen industries that improved the quality of life for millions. For those workers, Milken’s paycheck was evidence enough that he must be guilty of some heinous crime. In the end, all they saw were the garish suspenders.Beyond Junk, Beyond Markets: Michael Milken’s Greatest Challenge“It is time to rethink the War on Cancer, moving from a war of attrition to a new plan of attack…the solution lies in a committed and sustained international mobilization…financial and human capital from around the world needs to be mobilized. At the same time we must dramatically expand the level of private sector involvement… to create “virtual laboratories” that will enable researchers to collaborate and pool their resources without wasteful duplication of time and effort.”These are the words of Michael Milken in a speech delivered at the National Cancer Summit in Washington, D.C., in November of 1995, about two years after his release from prison. It also happened to be about two years from the time he was diagnosed with prostate cancer and told he had, at most, 18 months to live.Unwilling to accept the dire prognosis, Milken attacked cancer in the same aggressive manner as he conducted the affairs of his trading operation. A student again, he educated himself about the disease, using his prodigious intellect to devour medical textbooks, journals, mainstream and alternative literature. He studied standard cures and combined his chemotherapy and radiation treatments with homeopathic remedies. He radically altered his diet from a trader’s cheeseburger-centric menu to one that included soy products, colorful fruits and leafy vegetables. He began to practice yoga and set aside time each day for meditation. He also was determined to learn everything he could about the way disease is studied – how it is funded and managed and how researchers turn their findings into practical applications. This was no academic exercise, nor was there a commercial goal in sight. Milken was determined to save his life by eradicating prostate cancer before it could kill him.The more Milken learned, the more appalled he became at the waste and pointlessness of much of the research that was being performed. It became clear to him that he could play a vital role in helping to transform an inefficient system. The 1995 speech to the National Cancer Summit is his manifesto, in which he spells out ten specific principles that will save countless lives and result eventually in the eradication of many kinds of diseases, including various types of cancer. Central to these principles is a fundamental recognition that the United States must lead the way in this massive worldwide mobilization. (Milken’s manifesto and imperatives – in fact, the entire speech, entitled “Rethinking the War on Cancer” – can be found on the Internet at http://www.fastercures.org/sec/war_on_cancer.Milken’s ideas were embraced slowly at first. But as positive results started flowing in – for example, it is estimated that thousands of lives have been saved simply by educating the at-risk population that one needs to be vigilant in searching for evidence of prostate or breast cancer in order to catch it early when it is relatively easy to treat – the medical establishment could not ignore the persuasive logic of Milken’s reasoning.In ensuing years, a decade since his death sentence was delivered, Milken personally contributed and raised hundreds of millions to fund research and educate the public (his Prostate Cancer Foundation is the largest private sponsor of prostate cancer research) and worked tirelessly to convince doctors, researchers and bureaucrats as to the worth of his approach. Amazingly, every personal strength that Milken used to rule the junk bond market played a part in his “takeover” of the medical establishment – his passion to win, intellectual acuity, highly evolved sales skills, vast personal wealth (even after paying over a billion dollars to settle his case in 1990, he still remains a billionaire, according to many sources), and intense desire to prolong his own life.In a recent interview, Milken provided some insight into the connection between his past and present endeavors: “I believe the person who waits for 110 percent of the facts to be in…is a person who is not alive because it’s too late for him. I worked in a field where ten seconds is a long decision process…now people will say, that’s a short period of time, and I say, no, it’s not. I’ve prepared my entire life to make that decision…getting off that inertia of making a decision qualifies well in building something.”In a November 29, 2004, Fortune magazine cover story, entitled “The Man Who Changed Medicine: Thousands of Men are Living Longer and Leaders Everywhere Are Taking Notice,” Milken is praised for galvanizing almost inconceivable progress in the war against prostate cancer. In fact, since he became involved, the death rate has declined four times more than for other types of cancer.Moreover, Milken’s work has been credited with influencing other philanthropists and high profile individuals who have been affected by sickness to commit their own resources and efforts. Bill Gates is intimately involved in a campaign to eradicate malaria; Lee Iacocca is a leader in the war against diabetes; Michael J. Fox is committed to finding a cure to Parkinson’s Disease; the late Christopher Reeve and Dana Reeve have led in the battle to cure spinal cord injuries; Lance Armstrong is known as much for his Live Strong Foundation as for riding a bicycle through the French countryside; and countless celebrities have come forward in the battle against breast cancer, AIDS and many other diseases that might otherwise remain unknown and unresearched. While these are separate efforts, they are all connected by a similar thread. Michael Milken has convinced people that it is not enough to simply write a check, but that fighting a disease is like fighting a war, and no war has ever been won without profound personal commitment and sacrifice.“Michael Milken changed the culture of medical research… what he’s done is now the model,” says Andrew Von Eschenbach, director of the National Cancer Institute. It is interesting to note that if one were to replace the words “medical research” with the word “investing,” the statement would be equally indisputable. Of Redemption and Legacy: Can We Forgive the Sins of Michael Milken?Clearly the work Michael Milken has done in the last decade has earned him a measure of respect and gratitude in the public arena. Perhaps the most interesting thing that has been said comes from Rudy Giuliani, the man who sent Milken to prison and now is his close personal friend. Bound together by history, and in one of those curious coincidences that hints that events are not random, the prostate cancer that afflicts them both, Giuliani says, “I realize now that I didn’t know him then. The man I know now is able to do tremendous things. He took the tremendous talent he had in business and is using it to fight prostate cancer. What more could you ask for?”Notwithstanding the platitudes, there remain many people in the financial world who will never forgive Milken’s transgressions, and it is not so easy to dismiss the criticisms of these naysayers as illegitimate. The Milken saga raises profound existential questions, most notably: Does the end justify the means, and are some crimes so reprehensible that they cannot be excused? These are questions that I am hardly competent to answer, and unless they change the name of this publication to Stock, Futures and Philosophy, perhaps somewhat out of place. But I do know one thing. Whatever you think about Michael Milken, if, at your next checkup, your doctor tells you that your PSA level is elevated, you are extremely fortunate that Michael Milken is no longer locked up in prison serving time for securities fraud.
Cup & Handle invertido en carc??????
Que rara figura no????
Hay que seguir para ver si resolvio asi o no....
ggal
La mm5 y mm13 estan juntas. Hay que ver si corta o sale como soporte de alli.
La BB a punto de definir muestran la escasa volatilidad.
La BB a punto de definir muestran la escasa volatilidad.
miércoles, noviembre 22, 2006
EL metodo Pesavento
Extraido del libro "Fibonacci ratios with Pattern Recognition" de Larry Pesavento.
Dice en su prefacio :
"Cada uno de estos patrones esta basado sobre ratios y proporciones. Un chart no es mas que un mapa con un eje de precios y tiempo"
No mucho mas que decir, el chart habla por si solo...
acin - zigzags cruzados
Este papel es de respetar muy bien los movimientos en forma de zigzag. Ahora esta en zona de definicion. Para donde lo hara?
martes, noviembre 21, 2006
Comprando y vendiendo volatilidad
Me parece un libro sumamente interesante ya que procede a explicar desde la base misma el concepto de la volatilidad. Y a partir de aqui procede a iniciar el viaje al concepto propio de lo que son opciones.
lunes, noviembre 20, 2006
Merval Intradiario lunes 20-noviembre-2006
1900 resistencia psicologica?
Si activa la cuña podria buscar un zigzag perfectae.
viernes, noviembre 17, 2006
Filosofia bursatil
Que cantidad de temas juntos…. Me parece que la buena operatoria bursátil esta ajena al plazo en el que permanecemos en el mercado. Tuco no puede entender como alguien puede permanecer dentro del mercado tanto tiempo y no aprovechar las correcciones y las alzas que él tan claro en el paso él ve. El Comandante pinta al trader como un tipo súper neurótico frente a tres monitores, viviendo en un departamentito de medio ambiente, sin ventanas y sin posibilidad de ir a veranear ni a las Toninas, también creo que se va al carajo. Jejejeje. Las buenas posibilidades de viajar y rascarse el higo cuando a uno se le canta también son del trader, es más creo que el trader puede llegar a dormir mejor sabiendo de la liquides de su capital de inversión, por otro lado el trader hace menos ostentación turística. Jejejeje. Creo que lo bueno del mercado es que hay mil millones de forma de operar, y lo único que invalida estos distintos métodos, es la personalidad de cada uno. Lo que noto es la cultura bursátil de los que tienen ya varios años en esto, por lo menos en este país, los foristas viejos y de renombre en este y los otros foros, sin perjuicio de ser AF, AT, Inversor de corto, mediano o largo plazo, todos coinciden en la temática de analizar, PREDECIR, e invertir. Muchachos donde hago el curso de adivinación? No sean canutos… jajajaja… Ya se que todos uds. se leyeron TODOS los libros y tiene MUCHOS años en esto, pero me cuesta creer en la posibilidad del hombre de adivinar el futuro, la explicación está en que parto del razonamiento de aleatoriedad del mercado, en tanto que, por ejemplo, el Comandante tiene plena fe en su análisis de valor y corre con la premisa de que la razón la tiene él y por el momento el mercado es irracional o esta equivocado y en el futuro su análisis prevalecerá , O el caso de Tuco que al igual que Maslaton (Tuco: escuchalo los Miércoles a las 20hs. http://www.fmradiocultura.com.ar/radio_en_internet.htm ) con toda precisión dicen el mercado hará esto, aquello, lo otro, y además tal mes. Pero esto está por demás instalado en el ambiente bursátil… será así el tema? Por internet se ven muchos portales dedicados a esta temática con mucha trayectoria en el tiempo… pero también existen muchas otras donde ni se discute lo aleatorio del mercado, donde la buena o mala operatoria esta centrada en lo no emocional del sistema, en estrategias de Gestión de Riesgo y Dinero, en el desapego absoluto tando del activo operado como de la posición tomada , y en el trabajo de NO ADIVINAR el movimiento del mercado.
car2005
http://www.foromercado.com.ar/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1337
car2005
http://www.foromercado.com.ar/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1337
El zen de la lectura de charts
Me pasa ya muchas veces que solo quiero ver el chart de creaciones ajenas. Quiero decir que no necesito ver que explicaciones da un autor acerca de todo lo que plasmo en un chart. Mirando solo lo que hizo se lo que ve y no necesito mas. Lastima que en el mercado local hay tan pocos que comparten lo que ven en un dibujo.
Ya parece que uno llego al zen del chartismo, jejejeje.
Ya parece que uno llego al zen del chartismo, jejejeje.
jueves, noviembre 16, 2006
Comentarios acerca de la Gestion del Dinero
Entrevistador dice:
sere curioso, ud cual valora mas?
Entrevistado dice:
psicologico
Entrevistado dice:
es lo q mas me juega en contra y con el cual trato de trabajar
Entrevistado dice:
No confio en mi sistema cuando mi sistema funciona.
Entrevistador dice:
bueno uno mismo es el propio enemigo conicido 100%
Entrevistado dice:
lo que pasa es q pase x la epoca de fundicion y aun no me puedo sacar eso de encima
me quede muy conservador y con miedo a perder lo poco ganado
pero ese conservadurismo sin riesgo me impide ganar mas
Entrevistador dice:
ser consevador no esta mal..lo malo es si uno se paraliza por temor
Entrevistado dice:
me quedo con una cosa q hable con mi sra el fin de semana
Entrevistado dice:
si tenes $ 1000
Entrevistado dice:
y sos conservador por 10 años
Entrevistado dice:
podes tener $ 1200 al fin de esos 10 años si sos conservador
Entrevistado dice:
ahora si otorgas un grado de riesgo a tu trading
Entrevistador dice:
bueno eso es lo que yo hablaba de gestion de dinero..ezfuerzo beneficio
Entrevistado dice:
podes perder todo o ganar todo al final de esos 10 años
Entrevistado dice:
no quiere decir esto que debes arriesgar todo
Entrevistado dice:
sino arriesgar un % mayor al % conservador
Entrevistador dice:
yo tampoco..pewro lo ideal es buscar un modelo que te permita administrar riesgos
Entrevistador dice:
y ese modelo se mide desde la gestion del dinero
Entrevistador dice:ser conservador siempre es malo al igual que laxo siempre..el modelo te debe determinar cuando flexibilizar y cuando enduirecerse o hacerse conserva
sere curioso, ud cual valora mas?
Entrevistado dice:
psicologico
Entrevistado dice:
es lo q mas me juega en contra y con el cual trato de trabajar
Entrevistado dice:
No confio en mi sistema cuando mi sistema funciona.
Entrevistador dice:
bueno uno mismo es el propio enemigo conicido 100%
Entrevistado dice:
lo que pasa es q pase x la epoca de fundicion y aun no me puedo sacar eso de encima
me quede muy conservador y con miedo a perder lo poco ganado
pero ese conservadurismo sin riesgo me impide ganar mas
Entrevistador dice:
ser consevador no esta mal..lo malo es si uno se paraliza por temor
Entrevistado dice:
me quedo con una cosa q hable con mi sra el fin de semana
Entrevistado dice:
si tenes $ 1000
Entrevistado dice:
y sos conservador por 10 años
Entrevistado dice:
podes tener $ 1200 al fin de esos 10 años si sos conservador
Entrevistado dice:
ahora si otorgas un grado de riesgo a tu trading
Entrevistador dice:
bueno eso es lo que yo hablaba de gestion de dinero..ezfuerzo beneficio
Entrevistado dice:
podes perder todo o ganar todo al final de esos 10 años
Entrevistado dice:
no quiere decir esto que debes arriesgar todo
Entrevistado dice:
sino arriesgar un % mayor al % conservador
Entrevistador dice:
yo tampoco..pewro lo ideal es buscar un modelo que te permita administrar riesgos
Entrevistador dice:
y ese modelo se mide desde la gestion del dinero
Entrevistador dice:ser conservador siempre es malo al igual que laxo siempre..el modelo te debe determinar cuando flexibilizar y cuando enduirecerse o hacerse conserva
Gestion del dinero por mantrell
Entrevista al Sr Mantrell acerca de la gestion del dinero:
-Para el trading existen 3 pilares: sistema-psicologia y manejo de dinero...cuanto le otorgas de % de utilidad a c/u?
-Yo valoros esos tres puntos. Pero a lo que le estoy dando mas bola es al manejo del dinero 50%
25 y 25 a psicologia y sitema de traiding.
Se que hay que tener sistema y psicologicamente estar apto para operarlo.
Pero aveces hay sistemas que conllevan mucho trabajo o dedicacion y no dan % de ganancia acorde con el sacrificio
-Porque 50%?
-Es muy importante para mi el manejo del dinero. Porque el sistema puede ser ganador y puedo estar apto para manejarlo psicologicamente, no obstante , puede ser matematicamente ganador, pero en $ la ganacia puede ser relativamente pobre. Medida sobre el capital o sobre el tiempo invertido en el tradeo. Igual insito los 3 puntos son importantes.
Pero por lo general uno intenta encontrar primero el sistema, pero hay que encontrarlo y seguirlo y evaluarlo desde elmodelo de gestion de dinero. El verdadero sistema ganador es el que gana en un modelo de gestion de dinero. El que sea matematicamente ganador no necesariamente puede ser ganador o rentable en la gestion.
-Para el trading existen 3 pilares: sistema-psicologia y manejo de dinero...cuanto le otorgas de % de utilidad a c/u?
-Yo valoros esos tres puntos. Pero a lo que le estoy dando mas bola es al manejo del dinero 50%
25 y 25 a psicologia y sitema de traiding.
Se que hay que tener sistema y psicologicamente estar apto para operarlo.
Pero aveces hay sistemas que conllevan mucho trabajo o dedicacion y no dan % de ganancia acorde con el sacrificio
-Porque 50%?
-Es muy importante para mi el manejo del dinero. Porque el sistema puede ser ganador y puedo estar apto para manejarlo psicologicamente, no obstante , puede ser matematicamente ganador, pero en $ la ganacia puede ser relativamente pobre. Medida sobre el capital o sobre el tiempo invertido en el tradeo. Igual insito los 3 puntos son importantes.
Pero por lo general uno intenta encontrar primero el sistema, pero hay que encontrarlo y seguirlo y evaluarlo desde elmodelo de gestion de dinero. El verdadero sistema ganador es el que gana en un modelo de gestion de dinero. El que sea matematicamente ganador no necesariamente puede ser ganador o rentable en la gestion.
poll
Caso para seguir. Le llevo tiempo alcanzar el nivel marcado por la mm50. Una vez alcanzado lo hice con una vela blanca. El tema es ver si sale de esa zona.
El ADX+ interesantemente marca una salida al alza. Veamos como sigue.
Este es un caso para seguir y ver que si una vez finalizado el ciclo al alza del merval le toca el turno a las garchitas.
alpa, pronostico y desarrollo final
El 27/10/2006 el chart era :
El 15 de noviembre el resultado fue :
miércoles, noviembre 15, 2006
jueves, noviembre 09, 2006
Trading el ADX
ADX Score ADX Direction Appropriate Tech. Indicator to Use
0 - 15 Up or Down : Range - Use Oscillators
16 - 20* Up Trend : Use Trend Following Indicators
21 - 40 Up Trend - Use Trend Following Indicators
> 40** Up Be Prepared For Trend To End
> 40 - 25 Down De-trending - Use Oscillators
24 - 0 Down Non-trending - Use Oscillators
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